Certified result: Casey Askar won with 14,774 of 47,876 valid candidate votes (30.8589%), a 5,702-vote and 11.9099-point margin. He carried Collier, Hendry and Palm Beach; Michael Carbonara carried Broward.
Politics
The 20% Race: Who Actually Has a Path in FL-22?
Post-election update: Casey Askar won the certified Republican primary with 14,774 votes and 30.8589%. The film below remains a frozen pre-election scenario test; the certified result closes the winner question but does not establish that spending caused the outcome.
Bottom line
Post-election update: Casey Askar won the certified Republican primary with 14,774 votes and 30.8589%. The film below remains a frozen pre-election scenario test; the certified result closes the winner question but does not establish that spending caused the outcome.
What the record shows
Key findings.
September 10 filing: the FEC candidate record shows a new Statement of Candidacy and related committee relationships. The FEC financial summary still covers June 5 through July 29, so the filing does not rewrite the film's frozen finance layer.
2020: $7,259,691.99 receipts, $6,500,000 candidate loans, $3,738,960.24 operating spending; 20,774 votes, 19.98%, third, 2,718 votes (~2.6 pts) behind the winner.
Collier 2020 mode pattern: Askar +209 vs Donalds in vote-by-mail, -568 early, -1,373 Election Day. The record shows mail strength and an in-person deficit; it does not establish why.
2026 (through 7/29): Carbonara $6,332,573 receipts / $36,589 cash; Keiser $3,797,856 / $701,594; Askar $2,567,760 / $1,048,396. Top three = 97.52% of located receipts; loans-to-receipts 66.9% / 92.2% / 97.4%.
Askar operating spend: $1,095,212.80 of $1,119,363.96 (97.8424%) through two vendor clusters — TV 73.3%, direct mail 14.8%; identifiable field/canvassing approximately $5,000; polling: none identified.
Registration-weighted scenarios (182,079 active Republicans; 62.43% outside Collier): repeating 2020's 22.8% Collier share requires about 22.3% everywhere else for a 22.5% plurality; even 40% of Collier requires about 12% outside. Not a turnout or vote forecast.
48-hour notices captured through 8/8: Askar $70,250 (3 notices), Keiser $27,500 (2), Carbonara $9,985.84 (1); no new Askar candidate loan on file.
Pre-election film verdicts (historical): Carbonara, Keiser and Askar were each rated PATH PLAUSIBLE BUT FRAGILE at the stated evidence cutoff. The later certified result replaces uncertainty about the winner, not the film's source-bounded method.
What this report does not establish
- The certified result does not establish why voters chose a candidate or that spending caused the outcome.
- Registration is not turnout and not support.
- Spending is not effectiveness; payment records show where money went, not what it converted.
- Vendor concentration is not ownership, control or coordination.
- Modeled paths are scenarios, not forecasts.
- 48-hour notices show certain late receipts, not the full post-July-29 spending picture.
- Independent-expenditure itemization was PENDING SOURCE at capture.
Sources
Records used in the film
Federal Election Commission: Committee financial totals, 2026 cycle (C00952663, C00901793, C00950964, C00935452, C00951293, C00950113, C00868893) Federal Election Commission: Itemized filings FEC-1996734 and FEC-2004686 (Casey for Congress Schedule B) Federal Election Commission: 48-hour notices FEC-2003302 / 2004684 / 2005002 (Askar), two notices (Keiser), one notice (Carbonara) U.S. Census Bureau: Cartographic county boundary files, 2024 Florida Election Watch: Official 2026 Republican primary result — U.S. Representative, District 22 Florida Election Watch: Official FL-22 certified county results Collier County Supervisor of Elections / Florida ENR: 2026 Primary Election official summary results Federal Election Commission: Casey Askar Statement of Candidacy filed September 10, 2026