Frozen rule hit rate 0 of 3: receipts ranks 1-2-3 (Christman $65,925; Langley $60,660; Barone $52,522) finished 4th, 7th and 5th. Winners: Blankenship 2,960, Krol 2,381, Schultz 2,364.
Politics
Money Didn't Win Naples. What Did?
The simple money-rank rule scored 0-of-3 against the official February 2026 result: the winners were distinguished by Election-Day conversion combined with citywide reach and candidate-specific coalitions — and after the election, the elected trio was not automatically one bloc in the selected early sample.
Bottom line
The simple money-rank rule scored 0-of-3 against the official February 2026 result: the winners were distinguished by Election-Day conversion combined with citywide reach and candidate-specific coalitions — and after the election, the elected trio was not automatically one bloc in the selected early sample.
What the record shows
Key findings.
Receipts-to-votes Pearson correlation −0.449 across the eight-candidate field — descriptive, not causal.
Krol: mail rank 7, Election Day rank 2, final result 2 (1,712 ED / 669 mail = 2.56). Counterexample: Langley's 2.06 ratio finished seventh. A 2-to-1 ratio was not sufficient and not exclusive to the winners.
Precinct strength did not aggregate: Barone first in PCT 479 (5th citywide); Petersen first in PCT 414 (6th); Taylor top-three in one precinct (8th). Citywide victory rested on geographically uneven combinations.
Winning-configuration profiles (institutional continuity, Election-Day bridge, differentiation pole) are analytic characterizations — MODELED PROFILE, not official result fields.
Six selected split votes through 05-06-2026: agreement inside the elected trio ranged 20–80%; strongest edges crossed election-cohort lines (Barton–Penniman 6/6). Enough to reject an automatic unified bloc; not enough to define a durable coalition.
What this report does not establish
- Correlation is not causation; no claim that spending caused any result.
- Election-Day conversion is not a universal winning rule.
- The six-vote sample is not a durable coalition model and does not establish ideology or motive.
- Modeled profiles are not official result fields.
- Candidate selections are not unique voters or ballots (vote-for-up-to-three contest).
Sources
Records used in the film
Collier County Supervisor of Elections / Florida ENR: Official candidate summary results by party (CSV export), updated 02-05-2026 Collier County Supervisor of Elections / Florida ENR: Official candidate results by precinct and party (CSV export), updated 02-05-2026 City of Naples: Candidate campaign treasurer reports City of Naples / Granicus: City Council draft minutes 03-18 / 04-01 / 04-15-2026 and related Collier County Supervisor of Elections: Published voting-district and precinct boundary map (KML export of official map)