Politics

Florida 2026 primary results review

Three certified results compared with public campaign finance, geography and voting records. Facts, analysis and limits remain separate.

Florida map, ballot and certified election-result analysis — Intelligence Desk editorial cover · not evidencePolitics · results checked September 1, 2026

Review 01

Candidate funding was not a substitute for electoral reach.

Daniel Kowal won the certified District 4 primary with 8,957 votes and 70.6499%. Daniel Zegarac received 3,721 votes, 29.3501%, and won none of 17 reporting precincts. Despite radically different funding sources, receipts per vote were nearly equal: $6.41 for Kowal and $6.56 for Zegarac. The observable separation was spending efficiency and reach: 268.43 votes per $1,000 spent for Kowal versus 214.53 for Zegarac.

WinnerDaniel Kowal8,957 votes · 70.6499%

70.6499%Kowal certified vote share8,957 of 12,678 valid candidate votes

0 / 17Zegarac precinct winsNo official reporting precinct carried

25.1%Kowal efficiency advantage268.43 versus 214.53 votes per $1,000 spent

RankCandidateVotesShare

1Daniel Kowal8,95770.6499%

2Daniel Zegarac3,72129.3501%

What the result means

Receipts alone would have missed the useful distinction. Funding origin differed sharply, receipts per vote did not, and Zegarac’s campaign still failed to carry a single precinct. The record supports a reach-and-execution diagnosis, not a causal claim about why voters chose Kowal.

What it does not prove

The result is descriptive. It does not prove that funding source or expenditure efficiency caused any vote, and the official export does not expose contest-specific ballot totals, undervotes or overvotes.

Collier County — certified primary results Collier County — official precinct reports Collier campaign finance — Kowal Collier campaign finance — Zegarac

Review 02

Resource concentration won the plurality but did not correspond to proportional vote share.

Casey Askar won the certified Republican primary with 14,774 votes and 30.8589%. Askar, Michael Carbonara and Belinda Keiser held 97.5207% of frozen receipts and 97.9806% of frozen spending, while receiving 68.1573% of votes. Askar over-indexed in Collier, which supplied 51.0965% of his votes, and lost Broward to Carbonara.

WinnerCasey Askar14,774 votes · 30.8589%

30.8589%Askar certified vote share14,774 of 47,876 valid candidate votes

29.8233 ppspending-share conversion gap97.9806% of frozen spending versus 68.1573% of votes for the top three

−2.7810 ppAskar gap to Carbonara in Broward25.0368% versus 27.8178%

RankCandidateVotesShare

1Casey Askar14,77430.8589%

2Michael Carbonara9,07218.9490%

3Belinda Keiser8,78518.3495%

4David Burck7,50515.6759%

5Terri Hasdorff3,6837.6928%

6Michael Thompson2,6165.4641%

7Richard Evans1,4413.0099%

What the result means

The money signal identified the leading tier, but nearly 30 percentage points of resource share did not appear in aggregate vote share. The sharper decision read is geographic: Askar’s Collier strength supplied a majority of his votes, while Broward contradicted a uniform districtwide story.

What it does not prove

Resource share, registration, county performance and vendor concentration do not establish persuasion, turnout cause, coordination or campaign effectiveness. Registration is not turnout. A Statement of Candidacy is a relationship filing, not a financial report.

Florida Election Watch — U.S. Representative results Florida Election Watch — FL-22 county results Federal Election Commission — Casey Askar Federal Election Commission — Michael Carbonara Federal Election Commission — Belinda Keiser Florida book-closing registration reports Federal Election Commission — September 10 Statement of Candidacy

Review 03

Concentrated resources coexisted with a broad plurality—without proving why.

Byron Donalds won the certified Republican primary with 811,131 votes and 47.7886%, a 384,117-vote margin. Against the frozen expenditure control, that equals $6.02 spent per Donalds vote and 166,069.50 votes per $1 million. Donalds and Jay Collins, the two Republican public-fund recipients at the cutoff, combined for 72.9466% of valid candidate votes.

WinnerByron Donalds811,131 votes · 47.7886%

47.7886%Donalds certified vote share811,131 of 1,697,330 valid candidate votes

$6.02frozen spend per Donalds vote166,069.50 votes per $1 million

72.9466%vote share for two public-fund recipientsDonalds and Collins combined

RankCandidateVotesShare

1Byron Donalds811,13147.7886%

2Jay Collins427,01425.1580%

3James Fishback177,80910.4758%

4Paul Renner145,0638.5465%

5Bobby Williams69,1044.0713%

6Rachel Rodriguez27,6231.6274%

7Jim Holcomb13,1830.7767%

8James W. Shaw7,8880.4647%

9Arthur Joseph McCaffrey7,0480.4152%

10Caneste Succe6,2750.3697%

11Daniel Nokovich5,1920.3059%

What the result means

The result confirms the pre-election rank and scale signal. It does not identify which operating fact mattered to voters. Public funds, party support, vendor concentration, administrative relationships and transaction volume remain context—not causal explanations.

What it does not prove

Transaction rows are not unique donors. Public funds, party support, vendor payments and administrative relationships do not establish voter motive, eligibility effects, coordination, effectiveness or misconduct.

Florida Election Watch — Governor results Florida public campaign-finance matching funds — 2026 Florida candidate record — Byron Donalds Florida campaign-finance search Florida election-results certification timeline Florida certification meeting record

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