Intelligence Desk · Naples Decision Files
Land. Money. Votes. The next decision. Three source-linked films built from the public record.
The series
Every film states its evidence cutoff, keeps unlike capital classes separate, and ends where the record ends.
01
Money already made Casey Askar competitive in 2020 and finances a fragmented 2026 field, but the public record does not yet show that the Election-Day conversion problem that produced 19.98% has been solved — all three dominant campaigns hold paths that are plausible but fragile.
Runtime 4:28 · Evidence cutoff: FEC reports through 2026-07-29; 48-hour notices through 2026-08-08
02
Naples' pipeline is nineteen competing delivery chains, not one story: the delivered Four Seasons benchmark holds the only complete chain, the dual-brand hotel holds the strongest pending chain, and the decisive constraint is where land, capital, approvals and downtown infrastructure lock together.
Runtime 4:45 · Evidence cutoff: City Site Plan Summary 2026-07-01 edition; Radar ledgers as of 2026-07-17; captured 2026-08-08
03
The simple money-rank rule scored 0-of-3 against the official February 2026 result: the winners were distinguished by Election-Day conversion combined with citywide reach and candidate-specific coalitions — and after the election, the elected trio was not automatically one bloc in the selected early sample.
Runtime 2:53 · Evidence cutoff: Official results updated 2026-02-05; roll-call sample through 2026-05-06; backtest frozen 2026-08-07